RuDo research · November 2026
Twenty years of Indian share returns, measured the way a UAE resident spends them: in dirhams.
By Alok Kumar, Co-founder and CEO, RuDo Wealth. Published 12 November 2026. Data to 30 September 2026.
The short answer: over the 20 years to 30 September 2026, the Nifty 50 returned 10.97% a year in rupees, with dividends reinvested. In UAE dirhams it returned 6.96% a year. The difference is the rupee, which went from ₹45.95 to ₹95.83 a US dollar, a fall of 3.74% a year. For an NRI who will spend the money in the Gulf, that took about 37% of the return.
3.74%
The rupee's fall a year against the dollar and dirham, 20 years to 30 September 2026
37%
Share of the Nifty 50's rupee return lost when measured in dirhams, over 20 years
AED 384,266
What AED 100,000 in the Nifty 50 became in 20 years, against AED 801,397 had the rupee held
6 of 23
Calendar years the Nifty 50 lost money in dirhams, 2003 to 2025. In rupees: 3.
Take AED 100,000 on 30 September 2006, change it into rupees at ₹12.51 a dirham, and put it in the Nifty 50. Twenty years later the investment had grown in rupees. Changed back at ₹26.09 a dirham, it was worth AED 384,266. Had the rupee held its value, it would have been AED 801,397.
Month-end values of AED 100,000 in the Nifty 50 Total Return Index from 30 September 2006, before fees and taxes. Volatility over the period: 19.85% a year in dirhams, 16.83% in rupees. Source: RuDo Wealth from NSE index data and US Federal Reserve exchange rates.
The pattern holds across periods. The gap between the rupee and dirham return is close to the rupee's fall each time. The S&P 500 and US Treasury bills are shown in dollars for the same windows, as a reference point for money that never left the dollar.
| Period to 30 September 2026 | Rupee fall a year | Nifty 50 in ₹ | Nifty 50 in AED / $ | S&P 500 in $ | US T-bills in $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 years, from 30 September 2021 | 5.26% | 6.38%volatility 11.34% | 1.06%volatility 12.79% | 13.70%volatility 17.17% | 3.90% |
| 10 years, from 30 September 2016 | 3.71% | 11.48%volatility 13.30% | 7.49%volatility 15.01% | 15.24%volatility 17.95% | 2.49% |
| 20 years, from 30 September 2006 | 3.74% | 10.97%volatility 16.83% | 6.96%volatility 19.85% | 11.10%volatility 19.44% | 1.64% |
Returns a year, compounded; volatility is the annualised standard deviation of daily returns over the same window. Nifty 50 and S&P 500 include dividends reinvested and are before fees and taxes.
From 2003 to 2025, the Nifty 50 lost money in 3 calendar years in rupees (2008, 2011, 2015). Measured in dirhams it lost money in 6: those three, plus 2013, 2018, 2022, years when a rupee gain was turned into a loss by the currency. The rupee did not fall every year. It rose against the dollar in 7 of the 23 years, mostly before 2011.
A single start date can flatter or punish any market, so we also measured every five-year period ending at a month end, from 31 May 2007 to 30 September 2026: 233 periods in all.
It is history. It does not say what the rupee or either market will do next, and the order can reverse: US shares had two unusually strong decades, and there were stretches before 2011 when the rupee rose.
The currency matters most for money you will spend outside India. Savings meant for a home, parents or children's education in India can fairly be judged in rupees. Money you plan to bring back to the UAE, or retire on abroad, is better judged in dirhams, because that is what you keep. Many NRI households have both kinds of money, which is why a plan usually separates them.
See any fund's record in dirhams with the rolling returns tool, or every fund category in Indian fund returns in dollars.
Journalists, writers and advisers may quote the figures and reuse the charts and data, with credit to RuDo Wealth and a link to this page (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0).
RuDo Wealth (2026). What the rupee's fall cost NRI investors: 20 years in dirhams. Data to 30 September 2026. https://www.rudowealth.com/research/rupee-and-nri-returns
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Nifty 50: Nifty 50 Total Return Index (dividends reinvested), NSE Indices data held in RuDo Wealth's database, April 2002 to 30 September 2026. S&P 500: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) prices adjusted for dividends, from May 2006. Rupees per US dollar: US Federal Reserve H.10 noon buying rates (FRED series DEXINUS). US Treasury bills: 3-month bill rate (FRED DTB3), accrued daily as a cash return. Dirham returns equal US dollar returns because the UAE dirham has been pegged at 3.6725 to the dollar since 1997.
Each day's index level is divided by that day's rupees per dollar. Returns are compounded yearly rates between the stated dates; a date that falls on a holiday uses the last trading day before it. All figures are before fund fees, Indian tax on gains, and the 30% US tax usually withheld from dividends paid to UAE residents on US-domiciled funds. Tax depends on your residence and circumstances, so confirm your own position with a tax adviser.
Past performance does not indicate future returns. This is general research, not a recommendation to buy or sell any investment. India: RuDo Wealth Investment Advisory, SEBI Registered Investment Adviser, registration INA000019503. UAE: RuDo Digital Wealth, FSRA Financial Services Permission 220155, Category 3C (Retail), ADGM.